BP sees oil demand growth until 2030 due to slowing energy efficiency gains

Core Insights - BP expects global oil demand to grow until 2030, revised from a previous forecast of peaking by 2025, indicating slower energy efficiency improvements and carbon emission reduction efforts [1][3] Oil Demand and Production - Global oil demand is projected to reach 103.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 under the Current Trajectory scenario, before declining to 83 million bpd by 2050 [2] - If energy efficiency gains remain weak, oil demand could rise to approximately 106 million bpd by 2035 [3] - In the Below 2-Degrees scenario, oil demand is expected to peak in 2023 at 102.2 million bpd, then drop to 33.8 million bpd by 2050 [3] - U.S. onshore production is expected to remain stable at around 15 million bpd in the first half of the outlook, while Brazil and Guyana are projected to see significant increases [4] Carbon Emissions - Under the Current Trajectory, CO2 equivalent emissions are expected to remain flat until 2030, followed by a reduction of about 25% by 2050 from 2023 levels [5] - The Below 2-Degrees scenario anticipates a 90% reduction in emissions, driven by accelerated decarbonization in emerging economies [5] Natural Gas and LNG Demand - Natural gas demand is forecasted to grow to around 4,800 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2040, a 17% increase from current levels, primarily driven by demand from China, India, and other Asian and Middle Eastern countries [6] - The European Union's imports of Russian pipeline gas are expected to decrease by about 50% to 15 bcm and remain at that level for decades [6] - Liquefied natural gas exports are projected to rise to around 900 bcm by 2035, with over 50% of supplies sourced from the U.S. and the Middle East [7]