超3000亿元！银行9月密集赎回“二永债” 有何玄机？

Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of redemptions for "perpetual bonds" and "subordinated bonds" issued by banks in 2020 has been observed since September, driven by banks' efforts to optimize their asset structures and improve capital adequacy in response to changing interest rate environments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Redemption Activity - As of September 25, 15 "perpetual bonds" have been redeemed, totaling 302.6 billion yuan, which is significantly higher than previous months [1][2]. - Notable redemptions include those by Bank of Communications and Dongying Bank, with redemption amounts of 30 billion yuan and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively, at coupon rates of 4.59% and 4.80% [2]. - Predictions indicate that by September 30, at least 24 "perpetual bonds" will be redeemed, with a total redemption scale not less than 321 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - The redemption of high-rate bonds is seen as a proactive measure by banks to enhance their capital structure and align with regulatory guidance, ultimately strengthening their risk resilience [3][4]. - The current redemption trend may lead to a temporary reduction in the supply of "perpetual bonds," potentially causing price fluctuations, but it is expected to guide funds towards high-quality enterprises and lower financing costs for the real economy [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Dynamics - The interest rates of the redeemed "perpetual bonds" range from 4.20% to 5.40%, while newly issued bonds this year have rates mostly between 1.88% and 2.90% [4]. - Banks' actions reflect their accurate predictions regarding market interest rate trends, as they seek to release funds for more profitable asset allocations during a declining interest rate cycle [4]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - In addition to redeeming "perpetual bonds," mid-sized banks are encouraged to strengthen their capital base through strategic investors or capital increases, and to utilize financial instruments like preferred shares and convertible bonds for better capital structure optimization [5].