Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 26, 2025

Core Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.20% on September 26, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.63% and the 30-year note at 4.77% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-2 spread has shown a continuous negative trend from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [3] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a negative trend from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024, with fluctuations between positive and negative since February 26 [5] Mortgage Rate Impact - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs, and while typically a rising FFR leads to higher mortgage rates, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the latest 30-year fixed rate at 6.30% [7]