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天然橡胶：台风扰动有限 胶价小幅走跌
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-26 02:05

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 25, cup rubber is priced at 51.05 THB/kg (+0.25), while latex is at 54.80 THB/kg (-0.50) [1] - The purchase price for Yunnan rubber is 14,300 CNY/ton (-200), and for Hainan private rubber, it is 16,000 CNY/ton [1] - In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, Thai standard rubber is priced at 1,860 USD/ton, while Thai mixed rubber is at 14,850 CNY/ton [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.64%, down 0.10 percentage points month-on-month and down 6.95 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for Chinese all-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.39%, up 0.03 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.27 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.15 days, up 0.13 days month-on-month and up 9.67 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 39.16 days, up 0.03 days month-on-month and down 4.88 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.789 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [2] - Standard rubber exports amounted to 1.017 million tons, down 19% year-on-year, while smoked sheet rubber exports increased by 21% to 265,000 tons [2] - Exports of latex increased by 9% to 496,000 tons, with total exports to China reaching 696,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from Southeast Asia is expected to increase due to improved rainfall conditions, putting pressure on raw material prices and weakening cost support for rubber [3] - Downstream tire manufacturers have completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to a slowdown in the pace of inventory reduction for natural rubber [3] - Despite some companies facing shortages, overall shipment performance is below expectations, indicating potential inventory build-up [3] Market Outlook - The price range for the January contract is projected between 15,000 and 16,500, with future attention on raw material output during peak production periods [3]