Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures indicate a potential rebound in coking prices, driven by supply constraints and steady downstream demand, despite some steel mills experiencing profit declines [6] Supply - As of September 25, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 663,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,000 tons [3] - The total coking coal production from 247 steel mills was 464,000 tons per day, also down by 2,000 tons week-on-week, leading to a total production of 1,128,000 tons per day, a decrease of 6,000 tons week-on-week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2,423,600 tons, an increase of 13,400 tons week-on-week [4] - The blast furnace operating rate was 84.45%, up by 0.47% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate for pig iron production was 90.86%, an increase of 0.50% week-on-week [4] - The profitability rate for steel mills was 58.01%, down by 0.86% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of September 25, the total coking coal inventory was 9.816 million tons, an increase of 97,000 tons week-on-week [5] - Independent coking enterprises held 630,000 tons of coking coal inventory, a decrease of 34,000 tons week-on-week, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.613 million tons, an increase of 166,000 tons week-on-week [5] - Port inventory stood at 2.573 million tons, down by 35,000 tons week-on-week [5] Price Trends - As of September 25, the main coking coal futures contract (2601) rose by 30.0 (+1.73%) to 1,760.0, while the far-month contract (2605) increased by 29.0 (+1.55%) to 1,900.0 [1] - The price of premium wet quenching metallurgical coke in Lüliang was reported at 1,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, while the trade price in Rizhao was 1,490 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [1][6] Market Outlook - The recent price adjustments by major steel mills, with a cumulative reduction of 50/55 yuan/ton, have led to expectations of a gradual rebound in coking coal prices, potentially allowing for 2-3 rounds of price increases [6] - The steel industry is under pressure to control production capacity and reduce pollution, with a focus on the actual implementation of these measures in Shanxi province [6] - The market is advised to monitor the fluctuations in the steel market and the fulfillment of seasonal demand expectations during September and October [6]
焦炭：主流焦企开始提涨 上涨空间可能不大
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-26 02:12