矿难频发叠加美联储降息 业内看好后市铜价表现

Core Viewpoint - Recent copper prices have shown a significant upward trend, with both London and Shanghai copper futures reaching new highs, driven by supply concerns following the suspension of operations at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia [1][2][3]. Supply Side Analysis - The Grasberg copper mine, one of the largest globally, has suspended operations due to an accident, leading to a downward revision of copper production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by approximately 15% and 35% respectively [2][3]. - The suspension of the Grasberg mine has disrupted the fragile balance of global copper supply and demand, with its pre-accident production accounting for 3.2% of global supply [3][4]. - The copper market is experiencing extreme negative processing fees due to insufficient new mining capacity and ongoing production losses, which exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance [3][5]. Demand Side Analysis - The demand for copper is expected to grow, particularly in the renewable energy sector and emerging industries such as AI, despite slow growth in traditional consumption areas [5][6]. - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with reduced uncertainty regarding tariffs and a potential 50 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could support copper demand [4][6]. Price Outlook - The copper market is anticipated to maintain a strong upward trend, with projected price ranges for Q4 2025 being $9,800 to $11,000 per ton for London copper and 80,000 to 84,000 yuan per ton for Shanghai copper [6]. - The ongoing supply constraints from the Grasberg mine's suspension are expected to further widen the copper concentrate supply gap, impacting copper production significantly in 2025 and 2026 [6][7].