鲍威尔为何给美股牛市预期泼冷水？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing interest rates and market expectations amid a backdrop of potential economic downturn and rising inflation pressures [2][3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent comments by Chairman Powell have dampened bullish expectations for the U.S. stock market, leading to a decline in major indices, with an average drop of 79 basis points over three consecutive trading days [2]. - The current economic landscape is characterized by a high debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 123%, which complicates the Fed's ability to maintain independent monetary policy while addressing political pressures [4]. Group 2 - The Fed's strategy appears to involve guiding market expectations regarding future interest rate cuts to prevent a one-sided consensus that could destabilize the economy [3][5]. - The interplay between fiscal policy, particularly the "big and beautiful" legislation, and the Fed's monetary policy is critical, as it may lead to a loss of value in dollar assets if interest rates continue to decline [3][4]. - The Fed faces the dual challenge of fostering economic growth while controlling inflation, especially given the complexities introduced by tariffs and supply chain disruptions [4][5].