10月降息稳了？美国PCE符合预期，市场静待非农表现

Core Insights - Consumer spending continues to support the U.S. economy, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showing steady growth despite rising tariffs and inflation pressures [1][3] Economic Indicators - The PCE index increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August, up from 0.2% in July, while the year-on-year increase rose to 2.7% from 2.6% [2] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2] - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity, grew by 0.6% in August, marking the third consecutive month of growth [2][3] Sector Performance - Service prices rose by 0.3%, driven by increases in air travel, hotel accommodations, financial services, and utilities, contributing to PCE inflation [2] - Spending in transportation and dining out has increased, indicating a robust consumer demand in the service sector [3] Income Growth - Personal income rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, with wage growth outpacing inflation, enhancing purchasing power [3] GDP Growth - Strong consumer spending contributed to a 3.8% annualized growth rate in GDP for the second quarter, the fastest in nearly two years, with third-quarter GDP growth expectations around 2.5% [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The latest data may bolster the Federal Reserve's confidence in further rate cuts, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in October [5] - The Fed's decision will depend on upcoming employment and consumer price reports, with inflation remaining a critical concern [5][6]