Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-27 00:45Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that since 2025, there have been frequent disturbances in copper mines, but most of these disturbances are short-lived, resulting in limited supply reductions. [1] Supply Impact - The Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg copper mines are currently the most significant sources of supply disruption, with Grasberg expected to reduce supply by 200,000 tons in Q4 2025, which may help in depleting electrolytic copper inventories in China. [1] - By 2026, the combined supply reduction from Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg is projected to reach 400,000 tons, potentially offsetting all global copper mine increases, primarily contributed by Chinese mines such as Jiulong Copper and Mirador. [1] Market Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories have been fluctuating since September, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation in China. [1] - The expectation of increased copper demand driven by AI-related infrastructure development, alongside frequent disturbances in copper mines and a globally loose fiscal and monetary environment, suggests a potential upward trend in copper prices. [1] - The price of gold is also expected to exert some influence on copper prices. [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality copper mining companies as potential investment opportunities. [1]