Strong Jobs Report Sends Dollar Flying As Bitcoin Falls Below $111K

Economic Data Impact - A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report has led to a significant rise in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), reaching a three-week high, while Bitcoin has fallen below $111,000 [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, marking a two-month low, and Q2 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.8% from 3.3% [1] Federal Reserve Rate Cut Odds - Fresh economic data has reduced the likelihood of rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the odds of an October rate cut decreasing from 92% to 85.5% [2] - Fed Governor Miran advocated for faster easing, but Chairman Powell urged caution in response to the economic data [2] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion, with ETF inflows slowing sharply around the FOMC meeting, leading to a fragile balance in market flows [2] - The cost basis for short-term holders is now a key support level at $111,000, which must hold to prevent further declines [3] - Bitcoin has slipped below the 0.95 Cost Basis Quantile, indicating potential profit-taking zones, with risks of drifting toward lower support levels around $105,000 to $90,000 [3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing conflicts in Gaza, has contributed to market weakness and a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold [4] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts remain confident that the Bitcoin bull market is not over, despite current struggles below $112,000 [5] - The 21-week EMA is climbing, and Bitcoin needs to stay above this level to reclaim bullish territory and attempt new highs [5] - An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming, indicating potential for a higher low in Bitcoin's trading range [6]