Nat-Gas Prices Push Higher on As-Expected Weekly Storage Build

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have shown a slight increase, closing up by 1.61% on October Nymex [1] - The weekly storage report indicated a rise in natural gas inventories, which was in line with market expectations, but cooler weather forecasts are expected to reduce demand [2][6] Production and Demand - US natural gas production is at a near-record high, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 0.2% to 106.63 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) [3] - As of Thursday, US dry gas production was reported at 107.7 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.1% [4] - Lower-48 state gas demand was recorded at 73.2 bcf/day, up 0.8% year-over-year [4] Storage and Supply - The EIA reported a weekly increase of 75 billion cubic feet (bcf) in natural gas inventories, slightly above the consensus forecast but below the five-year average [6] - As of September 19, natural gas inventories were up 0.5% year-over-year and 6.1% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply [6] - European gas storage was reported to be 82% full, compared to the five-year average of 89% for this time of year [6] Rig Count and Production Capacity - The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs remained unchanged at 118, slightly below the two-year high of 124 [7] - The rig count has increased from a four-and-a-half-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024 [7] Electricity Generation - US electricity output increased by 2.3% year-over-year to 85,663 GWh for the week ending September 20, supporting natural gas prices [5] - Over the past 52 weeks, electricity output rose by 2.85% year-over-year to 4,267,164 GWh [5]