Crude Prices Recover as Russian-NATO Tensions Escalate

Group 1: Market Overview - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced modest losses, with November WTI crude oil closing down -0.01 (-0.02%) and November RBOB gasoline down -0.0075 (-0.38%) due to a stronger dollar index and risk-off sentiment in asset markets [1] - Crude prices recovered most losses in the afternoon following supportive geopolitical news and stronger-than-expected US economic data [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The outlook for increased crude production in Iraq is bearish for crude prices, with Iraq set to resume oil exports from the Kurdish region, potentially adding 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global supplies [3] - Concerns over the ongoing war in Ukraine and potential sanctions on Russian energy exports are providing some support for crude prices, as these factors could reduce global oil supplies [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - US economic indicators were better than expected, with Q2 GDP revised upward to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and weekly initial unemployment claims falling by -14,000 to a two-month low of 218,000, indicating a stronger labor market [4] - August core capital goods new orders rose +0.6% month-over-month, suggesting robust capital spending [4]