德国经济增长前景持续恶化 专家：美关税政策危害全球

Core Viewpoint - The joint economic forecast report from five major German economic research institutions predicts only a slight growth of 0.2% for the German economy in 2025, highlighting ongoing structural weaknesses and the adverse impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade [1][2]. Economic Growth Outlook - The German economy has been in recession for the past two years, with stagnation observed in the first half of this year. Although government stimulus policies may lead to a potential rebound, widespread recovery is not expected due to persistent structural issues [1]. - The report emphasizes that traditional growth drivers, such as strong export growth and robust manufacturing, have diminished, indicating that future recovery will rely more on domestic economic activity supported by fiscal stimulus [1]. Impact of U.S. Tariffs - U.S. tariff policies are identified as a significant negative factor for both the German and global economic growth, with experts noting that the adverse effects of these tariffs are beginning to manifest [1][2]. - The assistant researcher at the German Economic Institute stated that the U.S. tariffs will continue to cast a shadow over the global economy, complicating international trade and leading to adjustments in global supply chains and production structures [2]. Risks to German Economy - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies poses a risk to the recovery of the German economy, particularly affecting its export-oriented sectors. Any escalation in U.S. tariffs could directly impact Germany's export industry [2].