特朗普拉长关税清单

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of trade policies, particularly tariffs, is being questioned even among Trump's supporters, who are beginning to recognize that job losses are more attributable to automation than to trade policies. The logic of free trade remains relevant despite the challenges it faces [1][10]. Tariff Measures - Trump's administration has raised the average tariff level in the U.S. from less than 2% to 17.7%, with specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper reaching 50%, and most auto imports facing a 25% tariff. New investigations targeting robots, industrial machinery, and medical supplies may lead to further tariffs [2][3]. - Starting October 1, new tariffs will be imposed on various imported products, including 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks, 30% on imported furniture, and 100% on patented and branded drugs [2]. Trade Agreements and Reactions - The U.S. has reached trade agreements with several major partners, including the EU, Japan, and South Korea, but skepticism about Trump's trade logic persists. Countries like South Korea are experiencing significant export declines due to high tariffs [4][5]. - Japan's former central bank governor criticized Trump's high tariff policies as misaligned with U.S. economic realities, while the EU has faced criticism for perceived concessions under U.S. pressure [5]. Geopolitical Implications - Trump's tariffs have led to geopolitical shifts, with Canada experiencing a 1.6% economic contraction due to export declines and a rising unemployment rate. Canada is now seeking to reduce its dependency on the U.S. [6]. - The EU is accelerating trade diversification efforts and increasing defense investments to reduce reliance on the U.S. for security commitments [6]. - Australia and New Zealand are also reassessing their diplomatic ties with the U.S. due to trade tensions, which could impact intelligence cooperation [7]. Global Trade Dynamics - Despite the challenges posed by Trump's protectionism, countries are recognizing the benefits of reducing tariffs. Indonesia has reached a free trade agreement with the EU, and other nations are pursuing similar agreements to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [9]. - The WTO's multilateral trade system is under threat, with a decline in global trade share and increased unilateral measures by major economies, leading to fragmentation of the trade system [11]. Future Trade Frameworks - There are calls for the WTO to reform and better facilitate global cooperation amid the current trade turmoil. China has expressed its commitment to not seeking special treatment in future negotiations [12]. - Analysts suggest forming multiple alliances among like-minded countries to create a flexible network that can promote trade integration while ensuring supply chain security [13].