Bitcoin Trails Equities, Metals, and USD in Q3. Here Is a Key Level to Watch for Next Move

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its third-worst week of the year with a drop of over 5%, closing out the third quarter with a slight increase of about 1% [1] - The expiration of over $17 billion in options on Friday created a max pain price at $110,000, influencing the spot price of Bitcoin [2] - Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis is at $110,775, indicating the average acquisition price for coins that have moved in the past six months [2] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin tested the $110,000 level in August, typically moving towards this line in bull markets; however, it significantly dropped below this level only once this year during the tariff tantrum in April [3] - Analyst Caleb Franzen noted that Bitcoin has slipped below its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), with the 200-day EMA at $106,186; to maintain an uptrend, Bitcoin must hold above the previous significant low of $107,252 from September 1 [4] Macro Economic Context - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in Q2, surpassing the 3.3% estimate, marking the strongest performance since Q2 2023; initial jobless claims fell to 218,000, the lowest since mid-July [5] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is trading near 4.2%, while the dollar index (DXY) hovers around long-term support at 98; metals, particularly silver, are approaching all-time highs [6] - U.S. equities are near record levels, but Bitcoin remains over 10% below its peak [6]