崔东树：1-8月汽车行业利润率4.5%仍偏低 主流车企盈利压力仍将急剧增大

Core Insights - The automotive industry in China has shown a slight profit increase of 0.9% year-on-year for large-scale industrial enterprises from January to August 2025, driven by various factors including the "two new" policy and a low base from the previous year [1][8] - The automotive sector produced 20.83 million vehicles from January to August 2025, marking an 11% increase year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 680.49 billion yuan, an 8% increase [1] - The profit margin for the automotive industry remains low at 4.5%, compared to the average profit margin of 6% for downstream industrial enterprises [1][4] Automotive Industry Performance - From January to August 2025, the automotive industry reported revenues of 68,049 million yuan, with costs amounting to 59,889 million yuan, resulting in a profit of 3,035 million yuan, which is a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - In August 2025, the automotive industry generated revenue of 8,856 million yuan, a 7.5% increase year-on-year, but profits fell by 10% to 298 million yuan, indicating a significant decline in profitability [1] - The automotive industry's profit margin in August 2025 was recorded at 3.4%, a noticeable drop from 3.6% in August 2024, marking a historical low for that month [1][4] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The implementation of the "two new" policies has effectively stimulated domestic demand, particularly in the automotive sector, which has lagged behind other consumer goods in terms of profitability [2] - The government is actively promoting the consumption of fuel vehicles and the scrapping and updating of older vehicles, which is expected to stabilize the automotive market [2] - The overall profit performance of the automotive industry in 2024 is projected to remain weak, with a sales profit margin of only 4.3%, significantly lower than historical averages [4] Industry Cost and Revenue Structure - The average single vehicle revenue in the automotive industry for January to August 2025 was 327,000 yuan, with a single vehicle profit of 15,000 yuan [6] - The overall industrial enterprises' revenue for the same period reached 89.62 trillion yuan, with a profit margin of 5.24%, reflecting a slight decline compared to previous years [8][9] - The cost pressures on mid and downstream industries have eased due to low commodity prices, contributing to a more stable cost structure for the automotive sector [6]