国资委会议聚焦稳电价、稳煤价，关注供应端长效控产政策

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongzheng Futures indicates a downward trend in coal prices and a negative growth in electricity demand, with expectations for coal prices to stabilize within a range of 650-720 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [2] Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Since the first half of 2025, coal prices have seen a significant decline, with the port 5500K price dropping by 150 yuan to 620 yuan/ton [2] - Starting from July, coal supply has been actively controlled, leading to a recovery in coal prices, which reached 707 yuan/ton by the end of September [2] - The report anticipates that coal prices will face pressure above 700 yuan/ton due to ongoing negative growth in thermal power generation and limited demand recovery [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The negative growth in electricity demand is expected to persist in the short term, making it difficult to reverse the current trend [2] - Dongzheng Futures highlights the importance of monitoring long-term supply control policies and their implementation [2] - Datong Securities notes that coal production capacity has been affected recently, and with the upcoming maintenance of the Daqin line, there is an increase in demand for replenishing stocks at terminal power plants [2] Group 3: Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with factors such as production checks and anti-involution measures supporting prices [2] - However, steel mills are facing narrowing profits, leading to cautious purchasing behavior, despite an increase in replenishment demand ahead of the upcoming holidays [2]