Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-09-28 01:04Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, leading to a significant increase in cobalt prices, which have risen nearly 40% this year [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's cobalt production accounts for 76% of global supply, and the extension of the export ban is expected to reduce cobalt supply by approximately 141,600 tons during the ban period, nearly half of the global cobalt production in 2024 [3][5]. - Cobalt prices have increased from $14 per pound at the beginning of the year to $19.5 per pound as of September 24, reflecting a significant tightening of supply [4]. Industry Impact - Companies in the cobalt supply chain, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and Greeenmei, have seen their stock prices rise significantly, with Luoyang Molybdenum up 10.87%, Huayou Cobalt up 7.85%, and Greeenmei up 4.41% in the week leading up to September 25 [3][8]. - Analysts predict that the rising cobalt prices will lead to improved earnings for related companies, with Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price increasing over 115% this year and Huayou Cobalt's stock price increasing over 92% [8]. Future Outlook - The export quota policy is expected to create a global cobalt supply gap of over 300,000 tons in the next three years, with significant shortages anticipated in domestic cobalt supply by February next year [6][7]. - The demand for cobalt is expected to rise due to the increasing need for electric vehicles and other technologies, suggesting that cobalt prices may continue to rise [5][7]. Strategic Positioning - Greeenmei has positioned itself well in the market, with its cobalt recycling capabilities exceeding 350% of China's cobalt mining output, and its production in Indonesia showing significant growth [9]. - Analysts suggest that companies with strong resource reserves and production capabilities, particularly in Indonesia, will be better positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [10][12].