低利率和外部环境扰动下债券市场走势与投资策略

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in China has entered a bull market in 2024, driven by weak economic conditions, moderate monetary policy easing, and reduced bank funding costs, leading to declining interest rates and narrowing credit spreads [1][2][8]. Bond Market Performance Interest Rate Bonds - Since the beginning of 2024, the bond market has shown a bull market trend, with the 1-year government bond yield dropping to a low of 0.9307% on December 23, 2024, the lowest since June 3, 2009 [2][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield reached a historical low of 1.5958% on February 7, 2025, indicating a low interest rate environment [2][4]. Credit Bonds - The scale of credit bond defaults has continued to decline in 2024, with a notable decrease in the proportion of defaults from real estate companies and AAA-rated bonds [5][6]. - The number of defaulting companies decreased from 37 in 2021 to 23 in 2024, and the default scale dropped from 1,076 billion to 241 billion [6]. Factors Driving Bond Yield Decline - Economic slowdown is evident, with the manufacturing PMI below 50 for nine months, indicating weak production [8][9]. - Monetary policy has become more accommodative, with two interest rate cuts totaling 30 basis points and two reserve requirement ratio cuts of 1 percentage point in 2024 [8][9]. - The cost of bank liabilities has decreased due to various policy measures, increasing demand for bond investments [8][9]. - Institutional demand for bonds has surged amid a weak stock market and ample liquidity, leading to significant bond purchases [9][10]. Outlook for the Bond Market Interest Rate Bonds - The bond market may experience increased volatility due to ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and potential government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [11][12]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is expected to increase, with a total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new government debt planned for 2025 [11][12]. Credit Bonds - The default rate for credit bonds is expected to remain low, particularly in the real estate sector, due to improved sales and financing conditions [20][21]. - Credit spreads are likely to narrow, but the potential for further compression is limited due to already low levels [22]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors should closely monitor the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit rates as they significantly influence the 10-year government bond yields [24][25]. - A strategy to go long on short-term bonds is recommended, as the yield curve is expected to steepen [26]. - Identifying structural opportunities in credit spreads is crucial, focusing on liquidity risk management and sector rotation [27]. - Enhancing trading capabilities and utilizing derivatives for hedging, along with diversifying into fixed-income-like assets, can optimize portfolio performance [28].