短期补库动力不足 玉米期价上方或有一定压力

Market Review - On September 26, corn futures continued to fluctuate, with the main contract slightly rising by 0.37% to 2184.00 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 26, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 21,814 corn futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - Seasonal reduction in corn inventory among feed enterprises continues, with an average inventory of 26.01 days as of September 25, down 0.15 days week-on-week, a decrease of 0.57% compared to the previous week, and a year-on-year decline of 6.94% [2] - The USDA is set to release its quarterly grain inventory report on October 1, with an average forecast for U.S. corn inventory as of September 1 at 1.337 billion bushels, the lowest in four years, down 24% year-on-year. This figure is higher than the USDA's September supply and demand report estimate of 1.325 billion bushels for the 2024/25 corn ending stocks [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guosen Futures indicates that despite a shortage of old grain, the upcoming large harvest of new corn will lead to a gradual easing of supply. Demand is weakening due to rapidly declining prices of live pigs and piglets, worsening breeding profits, and ongoing industry capacity reduction policies. Consequently, feed consumption is expected to weaken, and the inventory depletion of deep processing enterprises is slow, with low operating rates. Although feed and deep processing enterprises have low raw material inventories, the overall weak downstream demand and the imminent large harvest of new grain will result in insufficient short-term replenishment motivation. Therefore, corn prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate [3] - Southwest Futures notes that short-term domestic corn supply and demand are tending towards balance, with consumption continuing to recover. Old grain is relatively tight, and port inventories are quickly returning, reducing inventory pressure and strengthening basis. From January to August, corn imports sharply decreased, and import profit margins remain high, indicating potential for increased imports. The China Grain Reserves Corporation continues to sell corn through online auctions, and imported corn is being released. As northern main production areas begin harvesting, expectations for a bumper crop are strong, which may lead to cost reductions and upward pressure on corn prices, suggesting a cautious approach [3]