【财经分析】美元疲软成定局？人民币破7.1背后的国际博弈

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the RMB is experiencing upward pressure due to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a cooling U.S. economy, which has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB [1][2][3] - As of the third quarter, the RMB against the USD has shown a cumulative increase of 434 basis points, with a rise of 0.6% in the middle rate, 311 basis points in the onshore rate, and 139 basis points in the offshore rate [1][2] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by a favorable external environment, strong domestic equity market performance, and increased foreign capital inflow, which has improved market sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The future outlook suggests that the RMB will maintain a stable trajectory, with "steady growth" and "two-way fluctuations" being the main themes of its exchange rate movement [1][4] - Factors contributing to the RMB's strength include the Fed's interest rate cuts, ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, and China's proactive measures against external economic pressures [3][4] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is increasing, driven by the Fed's easing cycle, which is expected to channel funds into non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets and high-yield assets [6][7] Group 3 - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing, with significant developments in cross-border payment infrastructure and digital currency initiatives, marking a new phase in its global monetary role [7][8] - The RMB's position as the sixth most active currency in global payments, with a share of 2.93%, reflects its stable development in the international payment system [8] - The ongoing geopolitical economic risks are creating a strategic opportunity for the RMB's internationalization, as the trend of dollar dominance is expected to face long-term pressure [8][9]