黄金时间·观点：金价上涨的基本面因素均未实质性改变 新高可能只是上涨过程中的里程碑

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, surpassing $3,700 per ounce, is a response to global monetary policy easing, technological shifts, and the weakening of dollar credibility, indicating a long-term upward trend rather than a peak [1][9]. Historical Market Cycles - The first gold bull market lasted from August 1971 to January 1980, with prices rising from $35 to $850 per ounce, driven by U.S. fiscal deficits and stagflation, reflecting gold's role as a hedge against currency crises [2]. - The second bull market spanned from February 2001 to August 2011, with prices increasing from $251.9 to $1,920.3 per ounce, influenced by economic weakness post-dot-com bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis [2]. - The current bull market, recognized since 2022, is characterized by structural cracks in the U.S. dollar credit system, driven by political instability, fiscal challenges, and technological competition [2]. De-dollarization Trend - The global de-dollarization process is accelerating, with central banks, including China's, increasing gold reserves, reflecting skepticism towards dollar asset safety [3]. - A survey indicates that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing gold holdings, with 43% betting on the rise of yuan and euro reserves, highlighting strategic adjustments due to dollar credit cracks [3]. - The weaponization of the dollar post-Russia-Ukraine conflict has catalyzed the de-dollarization movement, emphasizing gold's strategic value as a "ultimate payment method" [3]. Current Price Drivers - Global monetary policy easing is a primary driver of rising gold prices, with the U.S. Federal Reserve recently lowering interest rates, enhancing gold's investment appeal [4]. - The weakening U.S. dollar index, which fell from around 108 to approximately 97.62, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand [5]. - Political and economic uncertainties, including U.S. domestic political interference and emerging market financial turmoil, have increased demand for gold as a safe asset [5]. Future Outlook - The U.S. political divide and global economic governance changes are expected to reshape gold's strategic value, with central bank gold purchases potentially transitioning from diversification to strategic accumulation [6]. - In the next six months, gold prices are projected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, with potential to exceed $3,800 per ounce if the Fed signals stronger easing [7]. - Long-term projections suggest gold prices could exceed $6,000 per ounce within 3 to 5 years, driven by structural changes in the global monetary system [8]. Price Scenarios - In a baseline scenario, gold prices may fluctuate between $3,500 and $4,500 per ounce over the next 12 months, with a midpoint around $3,750 per ounce [10]. - An optimistic scenario could see prices surpassing $4,000 to $4,500 per ounce due to geopolitical crises or significant Fed rate cuts, while a pessimistic scenario might see a drop to $3,400 to $3,600 per ounce if the U.S. economy stabilizes [10]. Investment Strategy - Investors should focus on the Fed's policy rhythm and geopolitical events affecting gold prices, while considering gold as a strategic asset in their portfolios to optimize risk-return structures [11].