Soybeans Hold Gains on Friday

Market Overview - Soybeans experienced a slight gain of 1 to 2 cents at the close on Friday, but November futures fell by 11 ¾ cents since last Friday. The national average cash bean price increased by 1 ½ cents to $9.38 ¾ [1] - Soymeal futures rose by 20 cents to $3.60, while October futures dropped by $14.10 per ton this week. Soy oil futures decreased by 5 to 14 points at the close, with October down 43 points for the week [1] Speculative Positions - Weekly CFTC data indicated that speculative funds in soybean futures and options shifted to a net short position of 29,302 contracts, reflecting a move of 31,589 contracts to the short side during the week. Commercials reduced their net short position by 27,234 contracts to 92,440 contracts, with an increase in commercial longs [2] - Managed money held a net short position of 898 contracts in soybean oil futures and options, while the net short in soybean meal increased to 103,269 contracts, marking the first time all three segments in the soy complex have been net short since March [2] Export Commitments - The USDA's weekly Export Sales report indicated total export commitments at 11.002 million metric tons (MMT) as of September 18, which is 37% lower than the same week last year. This figure represents 24% of the USDA's export projection, compared to an average sales pace of 45% [3] - Sales outside of China reached a three-year high, with commitments excluding China and unknown destinations totaling 7.2 MMT, the largest since the 2018/19 season [3] Stock Estimates - Analysts anticipate that the NASS will report September 1 soybean stocks at 325 million bushels (mbu) in the upcoming Grain Stocks report, with estimates ranging from 295 to 366 mbu according to a Bloomberg survey [4]