旺季需求逐渐过去 沥青主力合约本周K线收阴

Core Insights - The main focus of the articles is on the recent trends in asphalt futures prices and market conditions, highlighting fluctuations in inventory levels and production rates. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 26, 2025, the main asphalt futures contract closed at 3463 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in open interest by 11,318 contracts [1] - During the week of September 22-26, asphalt futures opened at 3454 CNY/ton, peaked at 3465 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 3443 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 0.35% [1] Group 2: Inventory and Production - On September 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in warehouse receipts for asphalt futures by 5,010 tons to 13,930 tons, while factory warehouse receipts fell by 320 tons to 36,720 tons [2] - The national average price of asphalt this week was 3773.07 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 6.85 CNY/ton or 0.18% [2] - The asphalt operating rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to 34.4%, although it remains 6.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Guoxin Guozheng Futures noted that refinery production in October is expected to increase year-on-year, with social inventory continuing to decrease, while refinery inventory pressure is rising [3] - Demand in northern regions is supported by pre-holiday construction, but southern regions are experiencing weaker demand due to typhoon and rainfall impacts [3] - Donghai Futures indicated that while oil prices are rebounding, the peak demand season is ending, and there is still pressure from oversupply [3] - The current basis is slightly declining, with limited reduction in social and factory inventories, and profits have shown slight recovery [3]