中诚信国际-中国城市燃气行业中期信用观察——国产气稳步增产，多气源保障供需格局稳定-250928

Group 1 - The global natural gas market is gradually stabilizing after a deep adjustment, with a weak balance in supply and demand expected in the first half of 2025, leading to increased volatility in international natural gas prices [1] - Domestic natural gas production in China is steadily increasing, but there is a significant production-consumption gap, resulting in a high dependence on imports; LNG import volumes are expected to decline due to a slight decrease in consumption driven by a warm winter [1] - By the second half of 2025, China's natural gas supply is anticipated to be relatively sufficient, with a slight rebound in demand expected, leading to a more stable supply-demand pattern [1] Group 2 - The upstream market structure for natural gas remains stable in the first half of 2025, with resource exploration and production concentrated among major state-owned oil and gas companies; market pricing mechanisms have become more market-oriented [2] - The midstream natural gas pipeline network is accelerating the construction of a new "five vertical and five horizontal" layout, with new policies promoting effective coordination of provincial and inter-provincial transportation pricing mechanisms [2] - Downstream city gas companies are facing pressure on profitability due to decreased gas demand and a decline in connection business volume; overall industry debt levels have slightly increased while maintaining a stable leverage ratio [2]