混沌天成期货：‌贵金属动能按下“快进键” 波动率同步攀升

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve officials express differing views on interest rate adjustments, indicating ongoing internal divisions within the Fed [1][2] - Recent economic data shows an increase in the likelihood of the Fed maintaining interest rates in October, with the probability rising from 10% to 15% [2] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, driven by net exports, suggesting a stronger economic outlook [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. banking system's liquidity is tightening, as evidenced by a drop in bank reserves below $3 trillion for the first time since January [3] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for August reached $344.79 billion, primarily due to increased spending, which continues to exert pressure on fiscal policy [3] - The recent rise in precious metals, particularly silver, is attributed to increased leasing rates in the silver market, indicating delivery pressure in the spot market [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Significant political events, including proposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals and other goods by the U.S. government, may create favorable conditions for gold [4] - The potential resurgence of tariff-related tensions could impact global trade dynamics, further influencing precious metal markets [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The long-term upward trend in precious metals remains intact, supported by global debt and geopolitical factors, although short-term volatility should be approached with caution [5] - Gold is viewed as having stronger support, while silver is recognized for its greater elasticity in price movements [5]