智通财经网·2025-09-28 07:14Core Viewpoint - Active foreign capital continues to flow out of A-shares, increasing to $0.7 billion compared to $0.3 billion last week, while outflows from overseas Chinese stocks also expanded to $2.4 billion from $0.75 billion last week [1][2] Group 1: Foreign Capital Flows - Passive foreign capital continues to flow into overseas Chinese stocks, with inflows of $20.7 billion compared to $30.7 billion last week, and into A-shares at $10.5 billion versus $10 billion last week [1][2] - As of August, the proportion of active foreign capital allocated to China increased from 6.4% in July to 6.7%, while the proportion of passive funds rose to 8% [2] - The under-allocation degree decreased from 1.45 percentage points in July to 1.35 percentage points, but remains lower than 1.31 percentage points in June, indicating slow accumulation by active funds [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Southbound capital accelerated inflows, with $439.6 billion HKD this week compared to $368.5 billion HKD last week, averaging $87.9 billion HKD daily versus $73.7 billion HKD last week [2] - The most net increased holdings were in Alibaba and Meituan, while reductions were seen in Huahong, CSPC Pharmaceutical, and China Telecom [2] - The overall market is expected to experience high-level fluctuations, primarily driven by strong structural expectations, but will inevitably face volatility due to rotation [2] - Factors contributing to market fluctuations include: 1) Accelerating domestic fundamentals weakening, 2) Potential turning point in macro liquidity, 3) Improvement in overseas liquidity but expectations have already been priced in, 4) Extreme sentiment and technical indicators, 5) Active micro liquidity [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Recent market volatility was influenced by both internal and external catalysts, with significant structural differentiation observed [3] - The US GDP revision and strong durable goods orders have driven the dollar and US long-term bond yields higher, aligning with previous expectations that a rate cut does not equate to a decline in bond yields and the dollar [3] - Recommendations suggest focusing on "short-term time loss but long-term space gain" strategies, similar to previous trends in the internet sector and current banking/dividend stocks [3] - Current intersections of economic conditions, event catalysts, and market crowding include: 1) Strong expectations for AI-related hardware and applications, 2) Ongoing attention to US-China relations, 3) Supply disruptions in copper mines and AI advancements, 4) Trade frictions affecting certain industries [3]