供应过剩格局难改 高库存仍然压制甲醇价格

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market shows a mixed performance, with a slight increase in prices, while supply and demand dynamics indicate a potential for increased production and marginally improved demand [1] Supply - Recent recovery in domestic methanol production capacity exceeds the impact of maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight overall increase in output [1] - Planned maintenance and production cuts next week will involve less capacity than the planned recovery, suggesting continued improvement in capacity utilization [1] Demand - The restart and increased load of port olefin facilities have returned operations to high levels, with traditional demand also showing signs of recovery, although profit margins remain low [1] Inventory - As of September 25, methanol inventory at East China ports stood at 824,000 tons, down from 851,800 tons the previous week, reflecting a decrease of 27,800 tons [1] Market Outlook - Short-term domestic and import declines, along with the restart of port MTO, have prevented further inventory increases, but high inventory levels continue to suppress prices [1] - The recent maintenance issues at Iranian facilities have raised speculation about gas supply limits, making October a critical month for methanol supply-demand dynamics [1] - There is a potential opportunity for long positions in the medium to long term as the market adjusts [1]