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The S&P 500 Is About to Achieve a Feat Accomplished 31 Times Since 1950 That Has a Greater Than 93% Accuracy of Predicting Future Stock Moves
Yahoo Financeยท2025-09-27 07:04

Core Insights - The S&P 500 is on the verge of achieving a significant milestone, with historical patterns suggesting strong future returns following extended winning streaks [7][10][12] Market Performance - Since April 8, 2023, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have seen substantial gains of 23%, 33%, and 47% respectively by September 24, 2023 [3] - The S&P 500 has recorded 31 winning streaks of at least five consecutive months since 1950, with the latest streak occurring from May 1, 2024, to September 30, 2024 [8][10] Historical Trends - Following five-month or longer winning streaks, the S&P 500 has historically shown a 93.3% success rate in being higher 12 months later, with an average increase of 12.6% [10] - The Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 is currently near 40, a level reached only twice in the last 154 years during bull markets [16][17] Valuation Concerns - Historical data indicates that when the S&P 500's Shiller P/E exceeds 30 for at least two months, significant declines of at least 20% in major indexes are likely [19] - The current valuation suggests that the market may be nearing a point of significant downside risk, given its historical context [19]