Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-28 10:57Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded to 4.2%. The report suggests that the risks associated with U.S. Treasuries are significantly lower than last year, with a potential rebound in short-term yields, but the year-end average is expected to decline to 4% or even lower, indicating a wait-and-see approach for investment opportunities [1] Group 1 - The significant drop in U.S. Treasuries in Q4 last year and Q2 this year was primarily driven by the impacts of Trump, but the transmission paths were different: last year's decline was mainly due to suppressed rate cut expectations, while this year's was due to a reassessment of term premiums [1] - Current conditions show a reduction in trade tensions and a restart of interest rate cuts, with minimal risks associated with declining credibility and a pause in monetary easing, suggesting a more favorable overall environment for U.S. Treasuries compared to previous periods [1] - The report does not foresee a substantial increase in the yield average, indicating a cautious outlook on the potential for significant yield recovery [1]