Is Nextracker Stock a Buy Now?

Core Viewpoint - Nextracker, a leading solar tracking systems producer, has experienced significant stock price growth since its IPO, driven by a favorable solar market, but questions remain about future investment potential after this rally [1]. Company Overview - Nextracker specializes in solar tracking systems that adjust solar panels to follow the sun, holding a 26% market share in 2024, leading competitors like Arctech Solar and GameChange Solar [3]. - The technology enhances energy output by 15% to 25% compared to fixed-tilt systems, making it particularly popular in sunny regions [4]. Financial Performance - From fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2025, Nextracker's revenue grew at a CAGR of 27%, increasing from $1.46 billion to $2.96 billion, while adjusted EBITDA surged at a CAGR of 103%, from $92.3 million to $776.5 million, raising the adjusted EBITDA margin from 6.3% to 26.2% [5]. - On a GAAP basis, net income increased tenfold from $50.9 million in fiscal 2022 to $509.2 million in fiscal 2025, driven by cheaper solar modules and favorable policy incentives [6]. Market Growth Potential - Goldman Sachs projects a 57% increase in global solar installation power from 2024 to 2030, reaching 914 gigawatts, while Markets and Markets anticipates the solar tracker market will grow at a CAGR of 17.3% from 2024 to 2029 [8]. Strategic Investments - To maintain its market leadership, Nextracker is investing in AI and robotics technologies, enhancing its capabilities through acquisitions, including Onsight Technology and Origami Solar [9]. Backlog and Revenue Expectations - Nextracker reported a backlog of $4.75 billion at the end of Q1 fiscal 2026, with revenue expectations for the full year projected to rise by 8% to 17%, but adjusted EBITDA is expected to remain nearly flat [10]. Future Growth Outlook - Analysts forecast Nextracker's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 12% and 8% respectively from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, indicating a maturing business model [11]. Valuation Assessment - With an enterprise value of $9.72 billion, Nextracker's stock is valued at 12 times next year's adjusted EBITDA, which is reasonable compared to its smaller rival Array, trading at 5 times [12]. Investment Consideration - While Nextracker may not replicate its post-IPO gains in the near term, its dominance in the solar tracking market suggests a promising future as the global solar market expands, making it a potential buy at current levels [13].