“反内卷”的下一步：盈利改善如何向中下游传导

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of upstream industry prices has been observed, while the midstream and downstream sectors still require more policy support to combat "involution" and promote sustainable development [1][5][7] Group 1: Industrial Profit and Price Trends - From January to August, the profit of the raw materials manufacturing industry increased by 22.1% year-on-year, with the steel industry turning from loss to profit [1][5] - The overall industrial profit growth turned positive, with a 0.9% increase in profits for large-scale industrial enterprises from January to August, reversing a decline since May [2][4] - In August, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline narrowed to 2.9% year-on-year, marking the first reduction in the decline since March [3][4] Group 2: Policy Measures and Industry Support - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasized the need for state-owned enterprises to resist "involution" and promote healthy competition [1][7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released multiple industry stabilization plans, focusing on sectors like automotive, steel, and non-ferrous metals to enhance governance and competition order [7][8] - Future policies should focus on expanding domestic demand and ensuring the effective implementation of "anti-involution" measures to support downstream industries [6][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - Despite improvements in industrial profits, revenue growth indicates that demand has not significantly improved, with rising inventory levels and longer accounts receivable periods [4][6] - The structural differentiation of profits between upstream and downstream industries persists, with upstream benefiting from "anti-involution" policies while downstream remains constrained by weak terminal demand [6][8] - The steel industry faces challenges with excess capacity and demand imbalance, necessitating precise capacity control and supply-demand coordination [9]