NVDA, CRWV, NOW & Ellerbroek's Big Picture on A.I.

Market Overview - AI infrastructure investment is rapidly growing year-over-year, with significant commitments and announcements in data centers [2][3] - AI-exposed companies have driven the majority of stock market increases over the last three years, accounting for nearly all incremental capital expenditure growth in the S&P 500 [3] Nvidia and OpenAI Deal - Nvidia's deal with OpenAI involves substantial chip purchases and a large investment, raising questions about the long-term implications for Nvidia [4][5] - Nvidia has made over 50 investments in AI-native companies in 2024, with the OpenAI deal being the largest at $100 billion, continuing its long-term investment strategy in AI [6][8] AI Infrastructure and Software Companies - Companies with infrastructure exposure, such as Nvidia and data center contractors, are expected to perform well in the AI boom [10] - Software businesses that integrate AI functionality into existing products, like ServiceNow, are seen as having significant growth potential, despite being currently underperforming [11][13] Blackstone and Alternative Investments - Blackstone is positioned well in the current market environment, benefiting from tight credit spreads and a strong IPO market, with expectations of significant earnings growth [16][18] Amazon's Growth Prospects - Amazon's recent settlement of a $2.5 billion FTC lawsuit removes a legal overhang, allowing focus on growth in both retail and AWS [19][20] - Amazon's retail business continues to outpace competitors, with opportunities for cost savings through robotics and expanded grocery delivery capabilities [22] Retail Sector Insights - Walmart and Costco are both well-positioned in the retail market, with Costco showing strong comparable sales growth but carrying a high valuation [24]