汇丰晋信基金郑小兵：筑牢“安全防线”底部布局静待宏观共振

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy emphasizes "preventing losses before seeking profits," focusing on maintaining a "safety margin" in investments, with an expectation of a macroeconomic turning point that could lead to comprehensive market gains [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach prioritizes "safety" by analyzing four dimensions: macroeconomic conditions, industry selection, individual stock choices, and entry/exit points, aiming for long-term resilience with controlled drawdowns [2]. - Macroeconomic analysis is deemed foundational for investment decisions, with current conditions indicating a stabilization in the domestic economy while overseas risks are increasing, leading to a preference for "left-side" positioning and risk control rather than chasing short-term trends [2]. - In industry selection, the focus is on sectors with low valuations, strong ties to the domestic economy, and long-term potential, explicitly avoiding sectors with "dream valuations" to mitigate risks from short-term speculation [2]. Group 2: Stock Selection and Trading Strategy - The stock selection principle is to favor companies with a safety margin on the downside and growth potential on the upside, prioritizing those with low valuations and stable performance, while avoiding stocks that are currently popular but lack long-term growth prospects [2]. - The trading strategy involves monitoring "market sentiment" to determine optimal entry and exit points, aiming to avoid buying at peaks and selling at lows, which helps reduce short-term volatility and enhances long-term investment outcomes [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook anticipates a macroeconomic transition characterized by "domestic gradual recovery and overseas decline," with a potential turning point for macroeconomic synchronization expected around 2026 [4]. - The current core holdings are concentrated in the aviation sector, which is linked to expectations of RMB appreciation and strong domestic economic correlation, with favorable conditions such as declining oil prices and historical low valuations providing a sufficient safety margin [4].