MSTR Stock Crash Pattern to Repeat Again? Schiff Advises Saylor

Core Viewpoint - The MSTR stock has been experiencing a downward trend, with analysts predicting a potential 50% crash if it breaks below crucial support levels, reflecting investor fatigue and a declining premium over Bitcoin holdings [1][2][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - MSTR stock has declined from a high of $442 in July to a closing price of $309 on September 26, erasing all gains made in 2025 [1]. - The stock is mirroring a fractal pattern observed from 2021 to 2023, which previously led to a 50% crash after losing support [1][2]. - Analysts identify the $257 level as critical support; a breakdown could lead to a decline towards $120 [2]. Group 2: Institutional Interest - Despite the declining premium, MSTR continues to attract institutional investors, with the Royal Bank of Canada increasing its stake by 16% last quarter [3]. - The company's net asset value (NAV) has decreased from 2x in January to 1.44x currently, indicating a significant drop in the premium above Bitcoin holdings [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Risks - The erosion of the premium raises questions about the attractiveness of MSTR shares compared to direct Bitcoin investments [4]. - MSTR holds a substantial 640,000 BTC valued at approximately $70 billion, leading to concerns that a further decline in Bitcoin prices could pressure MSTR stock and trigger forced sell-offs [5]. - Peter Schiff argues that MSTR's Bitcoin-heavy strategy makes it more vulnerable compared to a gold investment, suggesting that had the company invested in gold, it would have seen a smaller gain with less market disruption [6][7].