博道基金张建胜： 创新药投资“一眼见胖瘦”

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to perform well in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index leading global stock markets, driven by valuation attractiveness and structural changes in the economy [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy of the fund manager focuses on growth style, with a balanced approach that does not exceed 25% in any single industry, emphasizing valuation and a bottom-up investment approach [2][3] - The manager's investment philosophy includes three main characteristics: a growth-oriented style, balanced investment across sectors, and a focus on valuation [2][3] Stock Selection Framework - The stock selection framework is based on three dimensions: competitive barriers, market conditions, and valuation [3][4] - Competitive barriers are prioritized, focusing on business models and corporate culture, with an emphasis on differentiation and scale effects [3] - Market conditions are particularly important for TMT companies, while valuation is assessed using a five-year implied return to evaluate cost-effectiveness [4] Market Outlook - The outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with a focus on technology sectors such as 3D stacking, semiconductor manufacturing, and cloud computing [4] - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from economic stabilization and a potential influx of foreign capital due to the U.S. interest rate cuts [5][6] Investment Focus - The investment focus is on identifying companies with clear alpha characteristics rather than merely chasing beta trends, particularly in the context of small-cap stocks in the Hong Kong market [6] - The manager emphasizes the importance of free cash flow and believes that the valuation of leading companies in the Hong Kong market presents strong cost-effectiveness [5][6] Innovation Drug Sector - The innovation drug sector has entered a long-term reversal phase, with significant growth potential as leading companies achieve breakeven and improve self-sustainability [6][7] - The investment strategy in the innovation drug sector is shifting towards leading companies, with a focus on business development and commercialization stages [7]