Biogen Inc. (BIIB): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Biogen Inc. is viewed as undervalued with a strong potential for growth driven by its Alzheimer's drug lecanemab and a solid multiple sclerosis franchise [2][4]. Financial Performance - As of September 18th, Biogen's share price was $143.81, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 13.86 and 9.04 respectively [1]. - The consensus for Q2 revenue is $2.65 billion, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decline, with expected EPS of $3.20 [2]. - Recent real-world data indicated a 25% reduction in hospitalizations, which may lead to an FDA label expansion and increased drug uptake [2]. Pipeline and R&D - Biogen's pipeline includes therapies for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and synuclein-targeting Parkinson's, providing multiple opportunities through 2027 [3]. - The company has a strong balance sheet with $10 billion in cash and $6 billion in debt, allowing for significant R&D investment, buybacks, or M&A activities [3]. Technical Analysis - The stock has shown resilience, bouncing off a support level of $125 and currently trading just below the 100-day SMA of $129 [3]. - Resistance levels are identified between $132 and $136, with the stock positioned for a potential post-earnings movement [3]. Investment Scenarios - Potential upside for the stock is projected between $138 and $145 if earnings exceed expectations, while downside risk is noted between $118 and $122 if multiple sclerosis sales underperform [4]. - A suggested entry point for investors is around $128 to $130, with strategies to scale into strength above $132 or to add on pullbacks [4].