Shell plc (SHEL): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Shell plc is viewed positively due to its strong cash generation, disciplined capital allocation, and strategic execution despite a decline in headline earnings [1][7]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Shell reported adjusted EPS of $4.3 billion, down from $5.6 billion in Q1, with income attributable to shareholders at $3.6 billion, influenced by lower Brent crude prices averaging $71.7 per barrel compared to $84.1 per barrel last year [2]. - The company generated $11.9 billion in cash from operations and $6.5 billion in free cash flow, indicating robust cash-generating capabilities [3]. - Year-over-year, H1 2025 adjusted earnings totaled $9.8 billion, a 30% decline from $14.0 billion in H1 2024, primarily due to lower commodity prices and downstream margin compression [4]. Segment Performance - Integrated Gas and Upstream earnings decreased to $1.7 billion each from $2.5 billion and $2.3 billion, respectively, while Marketing earnings increased to $1.2 billion from $0.9 billion [4]. - Chemicals & Products earnings fell to $0.9 billion, and Renewables & Energy Solutions remained flat at $0.2 billion [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Shell is executing strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing long-term value, including $3.9 billion in cost reductions and a decrease in operating expenses from $39.5 billion in 2022 to $34.6 billion on a rolling four-quarter basis [5]. - A significant milestone was the delivery of its first LNG Canada cargo, providing a strategic advantage in Asia-bound LNG exports [5]. - The company maintains a conservative gearing ratio of 19%, reflecting a resilient balance sheet [3].