日本货币政策仍面临不确定性

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain its policy interest rate at around 0.5% for the fifth consecutive time, reflecting uncertainties in both domestic and international economic conditions, including the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy and domestic political uncertainties [1][2] Monetary Policy Decisions - The BOJ plans to sell approximately 330 billion yen worth of ETFs and 5 billion yen worth of REITs annually, indicating a gradual reduction in monetary easing and a move towards normalizing monetary policy [1] - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was not unanimous, with two members proposing an increase to 0.75% due to rising inflation risks, but this proposal was rejected by the majority [2] Economic Influences - The impact of U.S. tariffs is seen as a critical factor in determining Japan's interest rate decisions, as rising import prices could suppress consumer spending and economic growth [3] - The recent decline in U.S. labor market indicators suggests negative effects from U.S. government policies, which could lead to a recession in Japan as well [3] Inflation Trends - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% the previous month, marking the first drop below 3% since November of the previous year [4] - The rise in food prices, driven by supply-side factors, remains a significant contributor to inflation, but analysts expect inflationary pressures to ease in the latter half of the year [4] Political Landscape - Japan's political situation is currently unstable, with the resignation of the current Prime Minister and the upcoming election for a new leader from within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [4] - The new party leader may seek cooperation with opposition parties on monetary and fiscal policies, potentially challenging the independence of the BOJ [4]