Supertanker Rates Hit Three-Year High on Rising Crude Flows

Core Insights - Rising crude supply from OPEC+ and South America, along with increased longer-haul routes, has driven freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) to levels not seen in nearly three years [1][3] - VLCC rates on the Middle East-to-China route have recently surpassed $100,000 per day, marking the highest rates in almost three years [2] - The current spike in freight rates is attributed to favorable market fundamentals rather than geopolitical events, with increased supply from the Middle East and the Americas supporting the demand for long-distance shipments [3][6] Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is increasing production, leading to a rise in shipments from the Middle East, while Saudi Arabia has reduced crude prices for Asia, further boosting flows to this key importing region [4] - Middle Eastern producers are expected to increase crude shipments following the summer months, during which many countries rely on direct crude burn for electricity [4] Market Structure - The global tanker fleet is divided between those complying with sanctions on Iran and Russia and those operating in the shadow fleet, which affects the overall supply of tankers available for crude transportation [5] - The spot rate for a VLCC on the Middle East to China route has reached at least $6.6 million, with daily rates for several chartered tankers hitting $100,000, reflecting strong demand for long-distance shipments [6]