Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-09-29 00:16Core Insights - The research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that the credit cycles in China and the United States may be approaching turning points, which will have significant implications for market and asset trends in both regions [1] Group 1: US Credit Cycle - The US credit cycle may restart its recovery following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with potential risks of overheating [1] - The effects of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are expected to become more apparent in the fourth quarter, particularly as the "924" market rally approaches its one-year anniversary [1] Group 2: China Credit Cycle - China's credit cycle, after a year of recovery, may experience fluctuations or even a downturn due to high base effects, necessitating increased policy support to counteract these trends [1] - The impact of these dynamics may not have been evident in the third quarter, but is anticipated to manifest in the fourth quarter [1]