Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-29 00:39Group 1 - The central bank is expected to implement a 10-20 basis points interest rate cut in the fourth quarter [1] - A potential interest rate cut may deepen the inversion of the China-US interest rate differential, leading to capital outflows and depreciation pressure on the RMB [1] - Despite previous expectations, the interest rate differential has narrowed this year, and the RMB has appreciated following the central bank's easing measures [1] Group 2 - Even with a potential interest rate cut in the fourth quarter, the RMB is expected to maintain an appreciation trend for the year [1] - Under the baseline scenario, the USD/CNY exchange rate is projected to approach 7.0 by year-end [1] - In an optimistic scenario, where extraordinary counter-cyclical policies stimulate the economy or tariffs on Chinese imports are reduced by an additional 20%, the new equilibrium for the USD/CNY exchange rate is estimated to be around 6.7 [1]