英国经济陷“滞胀式”僵局：高利率或成常态

Core Insights - The UK economy is facing a complex situation of high inflation and sluggish growth, leading to a rapid decline in expectations for interest rate cuts this year [1][2] - The OECD has indicated that the pace of inflation decline in the UK is expected to be slower than in other major economies, which poses pressure on homeowners reliant on lower borrowing costs [1] - Concerns are rising regarding the upcoming budget announcement in November, which may include tax increases, further dampening consumer borrowing willingness [1] Economic Indicators - The UK National Statistics Office is set to release the final GDP data for Q2 2025, but analysts expect no significant new information due to recent doubts about data collection capabilities [1] - The preliminary GDP growth for Q2 was recorded at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, but this figure diverges from several independent economic indicators [1] - Government spending was the main driver of economic growth in the quarter, while the private sector struggled, with corporate investment declining by 4% and wholesale and retail trade down by 0.9% [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical industry showed strong performance, potentially linked to companies preemptively stocking up in response to potential tariff discussions [1] - Retail sales data for August has been revised downward, indicating that the National Statistics Office previously overestimated retail sector performance [2] - The current economic structure is characterized by "high inflation, weak domestic demand, and reliance on public spending," reinforcing the Bank of England's high interest rate stance [2]