Huaan Securities(SH:600909) Huan Qiu Wang·2025-09-29 00:56Core Viewpoint - The National Healthcare Security Administration has issued a trial version of the National Long-term Care Insurance Service Project Directory, which includes 36 service items funded by the long-term care insurance fund, while also initiating a special rectification of medical insurance fund management to combat fraud [1][2]. Group 1: Long-term Care Insurance Development - Japan implemented the Long-term Care Insurance Law in 1997, establishing a mandatory nationwide care insurance system, which diversified the elderly care service system [1]. - Prior to the implementation of the Long-term Care Insurance Law, Japan's elderly care services relied heavily on public institutions and a few non-profit organizations, leading to a lack of competition and inefficiency [1]. - The introduction of the Long-term Care Insurance Law allowed private enterprises to participate in service provision, significantly increasing the number of care service institutions and creating a competitive market structure [1]. Group 2: China's Long-term Care Insurance Pilot - China officially launched the long-term care insurance pilot in 2016, covering 15 cities and 2 key provinces, focusing on providing support for severely disabled individuals under employee medical insurance [2]. - Various cities have explored diverse service models, with some focusing on institutional care and others emphasizing home-based services to meet daily care and medical needs of the elderly [2]. - These explorations have accumulated valuable experience for system improvement, leading to a rapid increase in demand for high-quality elderly care supplies as the long-term care insurance system expands [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - In 2023, the number of individuals covered by long-term care insurance is projected to be 18.331 million, with a total medical insurance enrollment of 1.33389 billion [3]. - The long-term care insurance fund revenue for 2023 is estimated at 24.4 billion yuan, with an average per capita contribution of 133 yuan [3]. - If the long-term care insurance is expanded to cover all medical insurance participants, the revenue scale could reach 177.3 billion yuan, and if it matches the average revenue ratio of similar systems in the US, Japan, Germany, and France, it could reach 633.3 billion yuan [3].