机构：中国航空业将迎“超级周期”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," with favorable conditions already in place, including market-driven ticket pricing and improved passenger load factors [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The aviation industry in China is experiencing a gradual recovery in supply and demand, with current passenger load factors exceeding those of 2019 and ranking among the highest globally [1] - If the recovery in business travel demand continues, the profitability of airlines is projected to significantly improve and become sustainable [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by a slowdown in the introduction of new aircraft and an increase in the utilization rate of existing planes, leading to a gradual decline in capacity growth [1] - On the demand side, resilience in business travel and strong performance in personal travel, along with the ongoing development of the silver economy, are expected to sustain growth in aviation demand [1] Group 3: Pricing and Regulatory Environment - The high passenger load factors, combined with strengthened price regulation by the Civil Aviation Administration, provide a solid foundation for ticket price increases [1] - The cyclical effects of volume and price in civil aviation are becoming increasingly evident, with expectations for ticket prices to recover due to high load factors and industry initiatives to reduce competition [1] Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - The ongoing bull market and improving economic expectations are anticipated to boost business travel and tourism consumption, which will positively impact the fundamentals of airlines, particularly ticket pricing and profitability [1]