国际观察｜欧洲汽车工业面临电动化转型困局

Core Viewpoint - The European automotive industry is facing significant challenges in its transition to electric vehicles, with increasing public disagreements among automakers regarding the 2035 ban on new gasoline vehicles, highlighting the tension between climate commitments and industrial realities [1][2][3]. Regulatory Challenges - The EU approved a regulation in March 2023 to ban the sale of new gasoline cars and small vans starting in 2035 to reduce carbon emissions from the transport sector [1]. - Major automotive associations have expressed that the EU's aggressive carbon reduction targets are no longer feasible, urging for a reconsideration of the 2035 ban [1][2]. Industry Response - Executives from leading automakers like Mercedes-Benz and BMW have called the 2035 ban "unrealistic," advocating for the continued development of hybrid and small gasoline vehicles [2]. - Companies like Mercedes-Benz and Audi have postponed their electric vehicle sales targets and plans, indicating a need to maintain internal combustion engine models for the next decade [2][3]. Structural Challenges - The European automotive sector has faced underinvestment in new energy technologies over the past decade, particularly in battery production, leading to reliance on Asian markets for battery supply [3]. - The slow progress in charging infrastructure, high electricity prices, and rising production costs have compounded the difficulties in achieving full electrification [3]. Employment and Economic Impact - The German automotive industry has seen a significant decline in profits and job losses, with approximately 51,500 jobs cut in the past year, making it one of the hardest-hit sectors [3]. Diverging Strategies - Some automakers are advocating for a multi-technology approach, suggesting that the EU should enhance subsidies and tax incentives to improve consumer acceptance of electric vehicles [4]. - Conversely, other companies firmly support the 2035 ban, arguing it is essential for maintaining European competitiveness in the global market [4][5]. Future Outlook - Experts predict that as electric vehicle prices approach parity with gasoline vehicles, the market will naturally transition, potentially diminishing the controversy surrounding the ban [5]. - The EU is attempting to balance the demands of the automotive industry with its climate goals, with ongoing discussions about the flexibility of emission reduction targets [5].