金价显著抬升 经济数据上修降低降息预期 长期向上逻辑不改

Core Insights - Gold prices have significantly increased due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, rising risk aversion, and continuous capital inflow, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.27% to $3789.8 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [1] - The performance of gold ETFs has also improved, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) increasing by 3.35% and Gold Stock ETF (159562) rising by 4.41% [1] Economic Data Summary - The revision of economic data has lowered the expectations for interest rate cuts, with the final value of the U.S. Q2 real personal consumption expenditures at 2.5%, above the expected 1.7% and previous 1.6% [1] - The final value of the U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate is 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and previous 3.3% [1] - The market's perception of the necessity for the Federal Reserve to cut rates has decreased, with the probability of maintaining rates in October rising from 10% to 15% [1] - The U.S. September S&P Manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.2, remaining above the expansion-contraction line [1] Market Analysis - Long-term support for gold prices is driven by global monetary debt, credit issues, and geopolitical factors, while short-term trading requires attention to volatility and the distinction between risk aversion and easing trades [1] - The upward trend in gold prices is expected to continue, but there may be a slowdown in momentum, and upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data could significantly impact macroeconomic trends [1]