“蛋”说无妨：需求旺季助推9月扭亏，10月后市承压

Core Viewpoint - In September, the demand for eggs increased across the country, alleviating supply pressure and leading to a rise in egg prices, although still lower than the same period last year. Feed costs remained stable, allowing egg production to turn profitable. In October, egg prices are expected to stabilize initially before declining, with a potential reduction in profit margins for producers [1][8]. Group 1: Egg Market Dynamics - The national average price of eggs reached 3.49 yuan per jin by September 25, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 14.05% [1][3]. - The average cost of feed for eggs was 3.03 yuan per jin, showing a slight decrease of 0.33% month-on-month [1][3]. - The total number of laying hens increased to 1.365 billion by the end of August, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.06%, the highest level since 2021 [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The demand for eggs improved significantly due to seasonal factors, including increased purchases by schools and food companies ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [3][8]. - Despite the increase in demand, there remains some supply pressure, particularly from cold storage eggs entering the market [3][8]. - The egg production rate is expected to stabilize as temperatures drop, contributing to higher egg output [3]. Group 3: Feed Cost Trends - The price of soybean meal decreased by 3.92% compared to the beginning of the month, which slightly reduced feed costs [5][7]. - The average feed cost for eggs was reported at 3.01 yuan per jin, a minor decrease of 0.66% from the start of the month [5][7]. - Corn prices remained stable, with no significant changes observed in supply and demand dynamics [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In October, egg prices are anticipated to stabilize initially before experiencing a decline, with potential prices dropping to between 3.00 and 3.20 yuan per jin [8][9]. - The profit margin for egg producers is expected to shrink as feed costs may decrease at a slower rate than egg prices [9].