机构看金市：9月29日

Core Insights - Silver is expected to challenge its historical high of $50, while gold prices may face some resistance due to a short-term rebound in the dollar [1] - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with Q2 GDP growth revised up to 3.8%, supporting the dollar's rebound and impacting gold's upward momentum [1][2] - The market is experiencing a divergence in the performance of gold and silver, with silver outperforming gold due to a recovery in the gold-silver ratio [2][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE index for August rose by 0.2%, aligning with expectations, indicating consumer resilience [3] - The second quarter GDP annualized growth was revised from 3.3% to 3.8%, marking a two-year high [2][3] - Initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations, reflecting a strong labor market [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The dollar index is stabilizing above 98, supported by hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials and a macro environment characterized by economic resilience and persistent inflation [2] - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing, with a 63% probability of occurrence, which may elevate market risk aversion and support gold prices [3] - Central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, driven by global monetary expansion and de-dollarization trends, which will support gold prices in the medium to long term [3][4] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Asset Strategies International anticipates that despite signs of overbought conditions in the gold market, the upward trend in gold prices will persist due to ongoing central bank purchases [3] - Phoenix Futures and Options highlights that the current market dynamics, including expectations of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, are favorable for gold [4]