“巴菲特指标”飙升至约218%创新高，当前入市如玩火？

Core Viewpoint - The "Buffett Indicator," which measures the valuation of U.S. stocks, has surged to approximately 218%, reaching a record high, indicating potential overvaluation in the market [1] Valuation Metrics - The Buffett Indicator compares the total market capitalization of U.S. companies, tracked by the Wilshire 5000 index, to the U.S. GDP [1] - Historically, Buffett suggested that entering the market when this indicator falls between 70% and 80% could yield substantial profits, while levels above 200% are considered risky [1] Market Sentiment - There is ongoing debate regarding the accuracy of the Buffett Indicator, with some arguing that the U.S. economy has shifted away from reliance on factories and heavy assets, favoring technology, software, and data networks [1] - Others believe that the U.S. economy is increasingly based on intellectual property, which may not be fully captured by GDP metrics [1] Additional Metrics - According to Bespoke Investment, the price-to-sales ratio of the S&P 500 has risen to 3.33 times, significantly higher than the dot-com bubble peak of 2.27 times and above the post-COVID peak of 3.21 times [1]